boring fall...

not much going on as of late. We've had a couple of potential setups over the last few months but always missing one or more ingredients. Hell I'll be happy with any kind of 'extreme' weather event. I'm so bored I'm eyeing the >1043mb high with cold as shit air in the central US on the 18z GFS 300+ hours from now.

yeah i would agree with that. i noticed the fairly dynamic systems come through the plains and the usual suspects get excited on storm track. everyone would get excited for thunderstorms here in Mississippi, but the main forcing and baroclinicity always went to our north. this past weekend I was glad it did for the halloween weekend in New Orleans... but currently the NHC has the track of tropical storm Ida as its path is taken right into the central gulf. GFS brings a lot of precip my way, but i dont see it intensifying all that much with SSTs near the coast rather cool and heat potential low in the gulf, plus with a shortwave trough ejecting over the southern plains and progressing eastward into the gulf, giving little to no shear. but these were some things just mentioned this afternoon as the hurricane shelter official came in and pointed this out. i am slowly realizing i have no idea how to forecast hurricanes... but i am still needing the lightning shot over a body of water, and the reef islands off the coast, keep the waves down in the coast, allowing for a nice mirror reflection of the lightning in the water. so i am hoping for that.