3/7-8/2009 TX/OK/KS

get your homework done now folks...

Saturday: There is a swath of 1900+ CAPE in western OK with decent 850 winds, and Tds upwards of 55+ almost reaching 60. The upper level jet also looks decent as well.

Sunday: The triple point just north of I-70 looks interesting with 1500+ CAPE and similar jet dynamics.

Me and Emily will definitely be going out, on both days if this verifies. I have some targets in mind now, but those are bound to change.

Waiting for Wednesday, when the NAM picks up on it. Later I will probably try and look at some other things...

yea the 12z gfs is looking nice for sure. Lets hope the trend continues. Better start studying for cloud physics test this week.

fuck... i guess i'll go to san angelo based on the 12z run...

our "trough" is back! thank god....

I think the GFS is worse than a woman right now. Back and forth, back and forth......

Well said Sean. 12Z ECMWF shows a cold push still around the weekend but develops the trough going into Mon-Wed of next week. We're gonna get something out of all this mess!

12z NAM and 12z GFS are in good agreement out 84hrs to Friday evening. new GFS continues to show at least some hope for Saturday and then possibly another event mid next week. NAM will have a hold of Saturday's event by tomorrow morning.

yeah, wont have chance to look at 12z stuff but ooz showed weak forcing with enough CAPE to hopefully keep storms discrete given a good amount of shear... we can hope! L lens should be here tomorrow!

what's up with friday? 1250+ CAPE on the NAM, decent shear... anyone?

are y'all buying into this drought non sense? to me that says scud free base and sculpted supercells, and this equals awesome pics!

As far as the drought, it may have different impacts on different setups throughout the season. Some setups it will not matter because Gulf moisture will be plentiful and nobody will even mention the drought. Other setups, when moisture quality or depth is in question, people will bring it up as a factor but who really knows how big of an effect it will have. Typically drylines will mix east faster throughout the day so maybe we will see that a few times this year. I could see a setup or two like March 12, 2006...May 4, 2003...April 21, 2005 this year but its all speculation.

Saturday is looking damn interesting on the 12z NAM this mornin!

looking at 12z runs while i wait for my lens to get here...

NAM points to southwest KS while GFS points to southeast KS/I-35 corridor. all of the sig severe parameters have local maxes near buffalo. this could be interesting...

If I was going based on this run, I would head to (yep you guessed Sean) Woodward. Don't want to get too close to the cold front and run the risk of your storms getting undercut real quick.

Yea, looking only at the NAM runs form today, Woodward would be a good starting point. This event kinda reminds me of March 2, 2008 with the shape of the 500mb being a bit positivley tilted and a similar synoptic setup with a decent cold front crashing south. However, in that event closer to the triple point was the place to be (http://stormgasm.com/3-2-08/3-2-08.htm) because the front didn't progress south as fast as the models predicted and a few storms were able to fire ahead of it and stay semi-discrete. We were in Altus that day and our storm 'almost' produced but the tornado of the day came near the tp ahead of the cold front. Of course, I'm NOT saying this day will pan out the same but it may be something to watch. I wouldn't mind a nice tail end dryline storm though.

in class this aftenoon, all the 'super juniors' were all fired up about this setup so the crowds will be out in full force.

I remember that! we were on the same storm. BTW Sam your boy's post on ST got deleted.

yeah that would look nice on the new lens... which is awesome to all you skeptics about crop factor. studying until 00z runs.

Just throwing this out there... look at the simulated reflectivity from the 18z nam in the TX Panhandle.

earls new images looked about the same. nothing new, definitely like the surface winds out of the south!

Yea nothing outstanding but I think its definately worth a shot based on what the NAM.



Hell, I'm getting excited just about the prospect of chasing north of I40 and west of I35.

sig tor parameter... sean, tell your mom to go to the basement now...

lapse rates greater than 8, tornadoes are great!

Pratt owes us one!

steve miller and michael okeefe are battling it out on storm track... steve miller seems like a dumbass... no offense to anyone who knows him.

A lot to talk about here, not a lot of time.
For the set up, things look good at least. GFS and NAM both seem to agree on the general pattern, though the timing of each and consequently the location of the dryline and amount of moisture return is still quite different between the two. But, we have two more days worth of model runs before we need to really pick a target.

Internet card from Verizon is ordered, largest god damned discount I have ever seen. Should be here Friday since they overnighted it for free. So that can be used this weekend.

As for chasing this weekend I have a couple of things to report. First off is that I just finished updating my computer in my car for the new level of hotness. As of now, I can run my GPS on both Delorme and GR Level 3 at the same time. It is a very simple, easy to use program that was FREE. [Raises imaginary glass full of spirits] Here's to google searching for a "free serial port splitter."

Now on to the main issue for the car. Shannon is considering going this time around. It's on a Saturday and her parents are able to watch the kid, provided we take Airyn up to Ark City. Not sure yet is we want to drive all the way up to Ark City, drop the kid off, come back, go chasing, go back to Ark City, then back to Norman. That is essentailly two trips to Ark City in two days on top of the chase milage. Not something I really want to do unless it looked REALLY good. Shannon is still thinking about it, she'll make her decision by Friday morning. If she does go, she wants to ride in the car with just me, so we would need to take two cars. Not a big deal. IF SHE DOESN'T go, which honestly seems likely, we have permission to take my car. So Sam, if you wouldn't mind leaving your vehicles here at the Apartment for emergency purposes, we can take mine tearing across the country. Get a nice change of pace and a chance for me to try out the new internet card with the antenna. I don't know if we'll have time to put your antenna in your car Sam before we leave Saturday, so I don't think the radio comes into play that much. That and we've been doing it for quite awhile without it, one more chase without it wouldn't be a big deal.

All things we can talk about later, but I just thought I would pass them along now.