5/26/09 west central TX/ OK

12z NAM shows a decent setup for west central TX on Tuesday. Moderately unstable airmass is forecast to develop midday along areas near I-20 but Td's may mix out substantially when sfc Temps climb >90-100F. Models show this and quickly weaken CAPE by late afternoon into the evening. We'll see how that actually turns out though. Other than than that, ~30kts eff. bulk shear coupled with the unstable airmass may support some supercell structures early on.

Still a ton of forecast model variability for Tuesday. I could see anything from staying just near or north of OKC to heading south towards Lawton Wichita Falls or even further south to I-20 areas. Hopefully, things will become more clear after tonights mess is done.

things look good for tomorrow. but VORTEX is being stupid and might make us leave tomorrow now. who knows. i'll be up at the NWC around 10 i guess with the computer. Lou said he would send an e-mail out around 11 or 1130 tomorrow. more to come tomorrow.

SPC words its latest discussion well with respect to the convection over southern OK leaving a cold pool in its wake. There could be an outflow boundary intersection with the pre-frontal trough somewhere over western north TX but flow aloft weakens the further south you go. I'll sit tight here until something becomes more clear.

cell phone signal is abismal here at the NWC. no go for vortex2 today. call when you get back.

as scouring the models since you left...

i might consider going a few clicks north, although it would be a super ballsy move. decent lapse rate axis points into southern KS with slightly better shear and lower LCLs. a majority of the precip models show some storms up there and the 4km WRF on earls page shows them all by themselves. in addition there is a subtle/moderate wind shift in eastern KS. this could be the front but the main front appears to be oriented in a more N-S fashion along I-35 later this afternoon.

southern target looks good to with a lot better instability and decent winds. the actual jet starts to nose in around the area which should help things out. given the marginality of today, i am game for anything. if anything, as the front passes through we could get a possibility to shoot lightning to our east later this evening.

lets give it hell!