7/20/09 KS/OK

Ok, I'll start this one off since I am bored and got to looking at SPC for a change. Tomorrow looks fairly interesting based of their discussion. I haven't looked at any models, nor do I plan to except for maybe the 4 km WRF, but SPC has a 30% hatched up for day 2 and their discussion mentions the possible upgrade to a moderate if things work out correctly. Not a day to chase tornadoes, but their is a decent chance for some decent hail and things should evolve into a ridiculous MCS if cold pools can get established. Lightning would be almost a guarantee and it will be roughly in the same area where Sam and I got lucky a little over a year ago exactly. Any thoughts?

looking over some things while the movers pack up my stuff.

looks like some ongoing convection now to the southwest of norman. there is a very small shortwave axis progged over KS this afternoon. there is some CAPE around 1500 J/kg progged on the RUC, which is interesting as it is not completely overdoing it. didn't look like to have real favorable low level dynamics for tornadoes, but in western KS and NE, there was a small jet max at 500mb that should provide enough shear for some supercells. yall would probably have had to already left norman to catch any of the good storms before the MCS's have evolved. should be a good day for some lightning, as the 0C and -30C temps in the atmosphere over norman look decent for a lightning shoot. Ogalla, NE could be a nice place to be for initiation near the front then follow them back south to get the three dollar beers at the quality inn in Salina, KS for the night. i would also pay a visit to the cute waitress there as well.

MD is out for the laramie range in WY extending eastward to my ogalalla target.

correction: nice storm to the north of I-80 in NE with some smaller storms starting to initiate. GR is also showing some storms uo in the loved cherry county as well. meso analysis shows some sort of boundary that is helping to back the winds at the surface with some pretty decent instability given the good T/Td spreads.