2/10/2009 OK/TX

I like the looks of the next system forecasted to come through the southern plains on Tuesday. Moisture will have ample time to return and Sunday's storm system really won't push the good dew's away. 12z today GFS shows favorable picture for me to break my windshield somewhere along the Red River.

As soon as I open my mouth 12z ECMWF is much slower and would have this next system eject into the southern plains on Wednesday.

GFS tuesday looks good. good moisture, good cape, vertical sheer seemed a little low, but the ole veered 850 winds strike again... the trough was fairly compact, with a lot of energy in it, it looked like. i might have to be a little late getting out there tho... i have class til 1:15, and i think it is too early to skip...

I like the looks of Tuesday a bit better (than Sunday) mainly because of better thermo profiles. However, I do see some problems with the wind fields. First 120+kt 200mb jet won't make things fun. Also, the sfc and low-level flow isn't in phase with the 500mb trough. low-level jet is displaced well to the east of the best 500 flow IMO but it could just be GFS doing it's thing. Got many more runs before I dig in too deep...

Holy Crap. Everyone pray that this morning's 12z NAM for Tuesday verifies. Tornado outbreak for red river valley!!!!!!!!!!!! Seriously, I need to calm down....

I can do tuesday. We don't have seminar in the morning, and I get out of Micro at 2:15. I might be tempted to skip if it looks really really good. I do have Extreme Weather & Climate, but I'll skip that for a "<2% in All Areas." Tuesday does look good, it will be interesting to see how it changes over the next day or two.

"it will be interesting to see how it changes over the next day or two."

indeed, 12 GFS keeps with the crappy veered sfc to 850 winds.

i'm done at 1:15! count me in...


i thought if we need to, we could do something similar to May 1st last year, and have the car ready and running to haul all south...

I have nothing to do except bowl in league Tuesday. I'll skip that, what my blind is for, if the nam is anywhere close to verifying. I can leave whenever Tuesday so count me in if this is at all close. Praying as we speak!

Sorry I didn't get any of the messages last night. Tuesday still looks like a go to me so we can start preparing things. Ardmore to Dallas at this point looks good. hoipefully things can slow a bit so we can start in our favorite territory, Lawton/Wichita Falls/Throckmorton. 12z NAM from this morning shows widespread areas of +2000 CAPE over much of north TX at 21z. Right now everything looks good for some tornadoes except storm motions and road networks so I'll try not to expect much.

I would have to agree. Today is the first time I have really looked at things for Tuesday, but it does look good. I might even be convinced to skip my MicroMet. class. Otherwise I can't leave until 2:15pm, which might be ok, it might not. We'll have to see when things get closer. But I do like the max CAPE right on the max Helicity on the Red river. I hope we can stay away from Dallas, I really don't want to be messing around with that crowd.

earl's site had 2000+ CAPE over Wichita Falls and Archer City... It also had a theta-e convergence max there and good precip breaking out at 00z. i like the more western target then following it over the red river. i also noticed the precip/sim radar models had stuff to the east of dallas around 18z, so you could bite at that to, or be careful not to bite at that and hope for something in the better cape.

we'll have to discuss tomorrow the logistics of getting everyone out and in a good position. since it's looking like a later show, maybe, leaving later might be an option, maybe... but i haven't looked at the new models yet, still doing homework so I can go...

I wouldn't mind being in Wichita Falls around 3pm or so...looking at 00z nam, points there and to the south could be a good starting point.
I have nothing to do all day though. let me know what everyone else's schedule looks like.

how do you say.... holy shit

i can be at the NWC at 1:30. i really shouldn't skip Artificial Intelligence...

I don't have anything to do all day so Sam just give me a time to meet. To everyone that has class... you know you want to skip!

We don't have semiar, I would skip Extreme Weather for a <2% in all areas, and if things keep trending the way they are, I will skip Micrometeorology as well. So basically, I can leave a 8am if you want to. I've already got the go ahead from the wife, but we can't take my car. Looks like fun.

Don't you put that evil on me... So this is all in assumption that cassie isn't going. Is that correct? Contemplate leaving at 1:15, and we'll talk tomorrow. I figure what I can do is drive my car down to the NWC after my 10:15 class, load everything in sam's car, assuming sam's driving, take the shuttle back, to campus and you guys pick me up on Jenkins at 1:15 then haul ass, but if that won't work, I will tell my professor the situation. Word is she works with a lot of meteorology people and likes them, so she might be nice about it... In fact she is trying to model tornado vorticies and storms... But even if I skip AI, I can't leave until 10:15ish... My 9:00 to 10:15 class is in fact mandatory, stupid Air Force...

oh and same deal as last season, first tornado we get, 1st round of drinks are on me! let's just hope it isn't until April...

cassie's not going and we can take my car.

A 10:15am leave would be nice....

alright, i'll see what i can do...

Things I saw for Tuesday that i like:
- 900mb meso low to the west of Wichita Falls
- not so veered 850mb winds, with winds more backed closer to Norman
- 850mb theta-E ridge WEST!!! of I-35
- good upper level shear, both directional and speed
- 30 degree low level shear
- 2000+ CAPE west of I-35
- large negative LI's east of meso low
- near 250mb inflection point implies increased divergence aloft!
- 3 km helicity looks good, max being east of I-35
- sfc dewpoints 60+

I don't like:
- Storm motions, might be a bit quick
- Upper level jet dynamics could be a bit better, not totally center on inflection pt/right exit

still awaiting an e-mail from my AI prof...

i'm game to follow these bitches into arkansas if need be, i really don't have anything important on wednesday...

I'll be honest, if it's going to be East of I-35, I am not going. For the time of year, storm motions, and classes, I don' think I can justify going if the storms are going to be in the woods. If it looks like it's going to be west of 35, I'm totally in. We'll have to wait and see when things get closer.