2/8-9/2009 W OK/KS/Texas Panhandle

was looking at the GFS this afternoon, they have progged 55 dewpoints over childress with 500+ CAPE. dryline looked decent too. the "good" moisture seems to hang around as the slow moving trough propagates eastward. the last couple runs of the gfs seemed to be consistent, so we'll have to watch it and see. could be a western oklahoma then eastern oklahoma chase pattern over the two days, especially if it falls on a weekend. i haven't really looked at the ECMWF or anything, but it is on the list to look at. i know we talked a lot of shit about the storm track people, but atleast there will be some lightning, hopefully.

models keep flip flopping, i did like the ECMWF, eastern KS for Monday... I can already picture myself leaving around 10:30 after HCI.

I'll take last night's 00z run of the ECMWF for cold core tornadoes on Monday!

Damn models are jumping around. 12 ECMWF is quite a bit different. I'll shut my mouth and wait for NAM to get a hold of things...

Funny... I think San Angelo NWS is more desperate for storms than we are.
[img][/img]

That is kinda funny. I think that we should also look at a little later in the week for the second system to come through. That one n=may be the better of the two.

It's Feb, there is no such thing as "better of the two." We'll go to both!

waiting for the CoD pages to come up at blu... right now like western KS for sunday, had a nice diffluent region up there and i am hoping for decent moisture. the main concern for later in the week will be the shortwaves and such ejecting the moisture... we'll see.

ok everything still looks the same as yesterday. i'm guessing KS would be alright, but still not counting out the TX target. there is more instability and such down there...

might target ardmore on tuesday after class if this gfs run verfies... not so sure the low shear on that day along with terrain is worth skipping class.

so whose in for sunday?... monday?... tuesday?

I'm out for Sunday if the NAM trend continues. Don't like what it is showing even for squall or lightning.

Tuesday, I'll go if things look decent enough.

More after 12 GFS is out...

I would have to agree with Sam's statement. I'm still in, but I might wait till later in the afternoon/evening before I bite if the NAM is correct.

i'm sure we all seen the slight over the TX panhandle this morning... mentioned tornadoes, but i am skeptical... we'll see.

I'm out for Sunday unless I see some better moisture return over the weekend. 12Z NAM does show around +500 CAPE around 21z near New Mexico /TX border from near Hobbs to Clovis with decent CAPE in the 0-3km layer. May see some nice cells from there to around Lubbock early on (4pm - dark) but a decent squall will likely take shape. Might be some interesting 'spinning' storms early on as well near intersection of sfc low and retreating front in ne NM/se CO/nw TX pan/ western OK pan with enhanced SRH and sfc vort but will be cold as crap.

Not so sure what to think of SPC's wording either...
HOWEVER...BASED ON PROGGED WARMING OF
LIFTED PARCEL EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS...WHILE STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY
PERSIST WITH ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NIGHT...LIGHTNING MAY NOT

Yeah, since when did the SPC believe hat theycoud forecast lighting? And why is a squall line so bad? Lots of lightning....

Squall line is not so bad, especially given the time of year. Are ya'll gonna drive that far west just for that though. A slowing trend of the system has been continuing over past runs and it looks like you'll have to get a good ways into TX pan, maybe a line from Amarillo to Lubbock unless you want to wait until after midnight or so.

It's hard to keep up with looking at all these days. Monday hs some potential near sfc low in north central KS / south central NEB with insane vorticity advection and cold upper temps. Maybe some cold-core action if things can clear out but I doubt it. Tuesday looks like a good bet at storms too. Anywhere from se KS to north TX looks decent enough for some mean storms.

I would have to agree with Sam at this point. The models have been getting progressively slower and slower with the development, pushing it farther west and weakening it with every run. A squall line does look iminent, but I don't feel like driving to New Mexico on Sunday just for some possible lighting. I'll probably just hang around here in Norman and watch things develop. If it gets closer and it still has some eleectricity in it, I might go out, but unless things change considerably I don't plan on actaully chasing anything.

Sam you sure you don't want to go? If you chase on Tuesday, you know you wont see shit because it will be the first chase of the season...

Trust me, I'm trying to find something to justify the drive. First off, that's some of my favorite chase terrain on the plains, TX/NM border southwest of Lubbock. If I knew 50-52 Td's could hold throughout the day with +70 T in that region, I'd be there.

Like you said. It is nearing the first chase of the season and another thing is preparing for a journey like that. My car probably isn't up for that trip and my verizon internet isn't all that great in the region and wxworx is turned off. That's about a 7 hour drive as well. I'll look again tonight but would need to decide very early Sunday am.

oh yea, I'm not going anywhere until I figure out my last problem on my dynamics HW due Monday...

Just to throw this out there, I can get the Internet-in-Motion from work for tomorrow only, after that I won't have access to it anymore. So we're covered for internet. As for the dynamics HW, we can help with that..........

And we can take my car, or Brandon's.........

yes we can take my car, i dont really care... IIM would be nice...

yeah i was thinking somewhere along the I-27 line for tomorrow, anywhere from tulia to plainview... for some reason earl's web page isn't uploading the CAPE...

i've got delorme '09 too... come on. i think if you guys don't go, i'll prolly sit this one out to... i'll even do your dynamics homework for you...