4/12/2009 north TX/southern OK

Another waste of a good trough coming through this weekend but I see some potential for decent hail tomorrow near the Red River. Mass of crap-vection should be going on late tonight through tomorrow midday then lift northeast of the area. Sfc low takes shape in TX panhandle and creeps ESE toward western north TX. Dryline arcs back toward west of Dallas then straight south to TX coast. Wind fields should be crap for this event but cold temps aloft should create enough instability for some hail if anyone is desparate. Wichita Falls could be a starting point early in the day.

I like an initial target of Wichita Falls. Good instabilities to the south with decent lapse rates pokin in as well. Winds are a little shaky, but again, we don't need much with the super cold temps aloft. call me in the morning.

- past few RUC runs show decent uncapped, instabilities just south of W. Falls creeping westward near Childress area
- HPC forecast charts show some outflow boundaries on the map in the same area, which could enhance sfc vort and/or lift
- Visible showed a nice N-S oriented boundary in the same area, but seems to be quickly eroding
- Visible also showed stout cirrus deck, but I would expect that to erode as the low progresses westward
- Norman WFO and SPC seem to be in good agreement for a change, forecasting large hail in the area Lawton/W. Falls/Vernon Area this afternoon
- High Res Models indicate storms along the Red River as well. One gets bold and shows storms on the TX pandhandle as well

One thing I would like to see is some clearing down there first. I want the possibility of a few structure shots if I went out today. There is a chance things develop on the back edge of the cloud deck. I'll give it an hour or two and see how things are trending.