Long Range GFS

So I won't really put a date on this since it will change, but the 348hr GFS from the 06Z run looked interesting. Nice strong 500mb low that wrapps up and will probably put a squall line through Miss. and Ark. with a ton of tornadoes over night whatever day it hits if it stays together. Just thought it looked interesting. That and I am really bored and looking desperately for a chase. What do you guys think? I know at least Sam is looking at models.

yeah, i should have plenty of time to look at models this week, but i haven't yet this weekend. i guess i spent to much time at sugers last night... it's amazing how far a dollar goes...

240hr showed a short wave... get excited!

Nice, very nice. Take a look at the 500 mb trough at 312 hr off the 18Z run (00Z run hasn't updated to that far out yet). 850 mb flow is backed S, could be better but I've seen worse. Nice 250 mb diffluent region aloft. 850 level shows rough location of low in Western KS, possible dryline trailing to the south along the wind shift line?

There are some signs of action beginning about mid-late next week. 00z and 06z GFS runs have a system moving through about Wed 3rd and then some action within the week after. Some of the GFS and CMC ensemble foreacasts have a similar solution. Nothing to get excited about but something to watch.

Sam, why are you up so early?

looks like a good set up on wedensday in NE. how are the roads up there sam?

went to get oil change, tire rotation, car wash etc.. early this morning.

Yea me and Sean were looking at things around next week and both agree that things look active and we might be talking about our next chase setup sometime mid-late next week.

yeah, i have been looking at the gfs a lot to. things are starting to pick up a bit... i'll go ahead and get it started. i can't leave until 1:15PM on tuesday, i have an AI exam... hopefully i'll have a data card by then.

Hmmm, I haven't looked, but you might have to stay behind and try out that KSBI position.....

216hr 00z showed some interesting features. moisture will be a problem... waiting for CoD to update...

Brandon might be on to something. 00z ECMWF and 00z and 06z GFS show signs of decent 500mb trough moving through fri/Sat 6/7th. They all have decent agreement in kicking out a weaker shortwave Thursday followed by a deeper, digging low for the Fri/Sat period. 00z Ensembles all generally have this feature at 216hrs as well but orientation of the trough is varied. we'll see how the 12z runs do.

anyone want to chase tennessee this weekend? NAM shows stout closed low scouring the southeastern states... which is bad for moisture... still hoping for some lightning tonight tho!

Agreed, what I'm about to post is not pretty...
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta84hr_850_wnd.gif
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/eta84hr_sfc_dewp.gif

384 hr gfs shows a nice b-day for me...

that low becomes more concentrated and compact each run... i'm getting excited...

Holy shit........

yes, everyone save as much $$$ as you can over the next few weeks. I'm predicting 20+ chases for April!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Why do you say that?

just me being bored. we need to make up for all those north Tx chases we're missing this March

that trough over the pacific could mean business for us! assuming their is enough time for moisture return...

my plans are to leave here on wednesday. if i need to be hauling ass west before that, let me know, a 24 hour advance would be nice so i can drive sober...

hey look, there are boobs on that 500mb chart, haha.

You would say that.

Well got some updates to the car. Put in a dash cam mount and a mount for the HAM radio microphone.

GFS - Some interesting stuff maybe for the last weekend of spring break.