Long Range GFS

It's obviously a long ways out, but are we talking like continued warming trend and storms ... IF so where at?

I read something about Nebraska..... I have never been that far north so it would be a new state for me to be in as well as chase.... I am down for the ride!

good to here jeremiah. yeah, i should be back in norman on thursday. might call yall on tuesday if things look a little interesting, as i might just go straight to the target. but probably not.

So this weekend is starting to really look intersting. I really like the 00Z run from tonight (March 17th, 00Z). Still waiting for CoD to update, but things look rather nice I think. GFS has a history of undercutting the dewpoints a bit, right now it has them in the mid 50's with surface temps in the upper 70's to lower 80's. Plus it looks like it might be a western KS, OK TX panhandle chase, I didn't know those even existed anymore. One thing I really like about this system, the GFS has had it prog. for Sunday night for 3-4 consecutive runs now, something interesting I think. What do you guys think?

Sunday-Monday could be fun. Monday looks like an outbreak for KS/NE if you believe the ECMWF. GFS and ECMWF have time differences for the ejection of the trough but the dynamic wind fields are great on both. We'll have for pray for enough instability. It'll give me something to do at work this week!

sunday looks interesting pretty far north. i'm in for the drive though.

tuesday has some decent instabilities and tds off to the southwest, like lubbock, lamesa, midland area, with some forcing but not a whole lot.

wednesday has 3000+ cape over southern oklahoma. the low on that dayis pretty well stacked tho. when is that dynamics test sam? i think we have a mesoscale exam that day, will be hauling ass somewhere around 1:50...

nothing to get too sold on yet tho, it's the gfs... still waiting on my ST account to be activated.

i'm in for a central KS/NB chase on sunday. it would be a great way to end spring break. i don't have a whole lot going on on monday so we can get back late. i'll be back in norman either really late tomorrow night or early thurs afternoon.

people are fired up on storm track already, and the usuals still talking shit about moisture...

just got around to looking at today's model runs a bit. Sunday would be more convenient but if it holds that trough out west one extra day and ejects on Monday, more moisture would be in place and things would probably be really good! A couple more days to see where things will setup but yea I agree there is some potential that comes middle of next week as well.

Absolutely nothing for at least another week.


Guess I need to study sometime this weekend.

Desparately trying to find something. Looking about a week out ( April 4-6th ~144-168hrs), past fews GFS runs,ECMWF, and ensembles show a fairly strong system moving quickly through the central plains in the mid Miss valley. Moisture return of course will be the big question mark.

Yeah I have noticed that system too. Unfortunately the low-level wind field is not very conducive for deep moisture return over the southern plains. Maybe that will change and it can do something.

strong wording from the trigger happy SPC today...

PROBABILITY OF ROBUST WARM SECTOR
RETURN FLOW AND FAVORABLE OVERLYING WINDS WITH SUCH A PATTERN BY
DAY-6/SATURDAY/4TH-5TH...INDICATES POTENTIAL SVR OUTBREAK OVER
PORTIONS S-CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEKEND.

Looking down the road once again....
maybe something in the April 10-13 timeframe. Ensembles show mean troughing in western US. If we can get more zonal flow during mid next week then MAYBE moisture can make it back to the southern plains.

Still looking good for another possible chase next weekend. 00z, 06z, and 12z runs from today show a setup on Saturday Apr 11 in the southern plains, probably TX. Ensembles are in failry good agreement still as well. ECMWF showing an even stronger system.

this is good. something to look forward to! i would like to see the system slow down, as the GFS normally does, and move slightly further to the west and set up over the texas panhandle, but that would just be wishcasting. it also looks like moisture doesn't get scoured to the south after the system has moved through, which will be good for after this system moves through. there could be potential for another chase the day after this system comes through as well, if the moisture hangs around!

Yea it will be another week of the models driving me crazy. At least it will be the southern plains, meaning moisture only has to make it 100 miles or so instead of 500+ like today. Lubbock WFO already has an "in-depth" graphic

The trend continues! last nights runs still show chase oppurtunities for next weekend. Actually, 00z ECMWF slow sthings down quite a bit, allowing for more moisture return and possible 2 day event in TX/OK. Some ensembles and 06z GFS caught on to this idea as well, even though that doens't mean much.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGT_0z/f168.html

Still way too far out, but if the system holds its strength and slow a bit, then I think Sunday could be a big day somewhere.

Might need to start a forecast thread once a few more runs come out...

Damn, Sunday, that's Easter. I'm going to have a hard time figuring that one out if it pans out for that day. Hopefully it will either speed up (keeping the moisture return of course) or slow way down to early the following week.

it looks like a good, decent set up. it will be nice since i have minimal homework due after thursday!

00z GFS slowed a bit... setting up over the TX panhandle...

200+ hours shows some opportunities for some throckmorton/wichita falls chases...

Indeed! Some interesting things showing up 200+hours out on the past two GFS runs and ensembles.

what a shame today doesn't have better moisture to work with.

Some interesting things showing up by mid-late next week (120-180hrs).

I hate it that this is the most popular thread on here.
Anyways, better get out there and chase late this week if you have the chance, starting early next week....

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

if anyone wants to do some GFS dreaming, go check out 18z from 240-340 hrs.