Long Range GFS

I am really looking forward to some solid back to back chases..... I can remember in 2004 when we chased day after day..... And that was Dal and I when our range was much smaller. Why cant we get a texas panhandle day one, Central oklahoma/ s kansas day 2 and ne oklahoma day 3....

Haven't looked into stuff too deep but I know we may get out of this weeks ridge and go into a favorable pattern. GFS & ECMWF both have nice solutions on a few of the past runs.

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i saw some 70F Tds on the GFS today!

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

My god, it's been so long I didn't even think the scale went that high anymore!

This Saturday could be the first of a few chase days coming up. GFS and ECMWF are similar with upper air pattern and synoptic features.
Similar to what OUN is showing here .... http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php?map=4
GFS showing widespread 60+ Td's and 3000 CAPE. If things continue to trend towards a possible chase, we can start a Forecast Thread soon.

12z NAM paints an interesting picture for Friday in SE Neb. Great instabilities with decent dynamics. Shear vectors and all that aren't really lining up all that well, but not gonna dig too deep yet, but still needs to be watched, especially along the dryline.

yeah i have to post this.

00z run: 192 hours: 4293 J/kg CAPE over Norman... damn...

Man, get your crap done today because starting on Saturday and lasting for about a week may be multiple rounds of chasing (and possibly good Tor's). There are some apocolyptic (spelling?) events on the horizon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Might be another system swinging through the plains on the 9th/10th. 12z GFS shows a decent two day event in the central/northern plains. Maybe get lucky with it landing on the weekend.

looks like a good start to VORTEX!

GFS is showing a different solution now. ECMWF showing maybe more like Sunday , MOnday

everyone have fun seeing tornadoes on my birthday (13th) while I'm in a test. ECMWF and GFS show nice mid week trough

Models in general agreement through about the 13th. Decent trough ejectgs in the northern plains 12-13 with possibel chase days 12th in KS/NE/OK/TX and another on the 13th with the tail end of the cold front in TX/OK yet best upper flow much further north.

After that GFS, ECMWF, and ensembles show slight western ridging with possible WNW or NW 500 flow for a while. more derecho chasing

Looks like possible chase days Tuesday(12th) Wed(13th) and Friday(15th) before things go to crap for a while.

Enough said ->
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html

not a pretty picture for the bext 7-10 days. Might be some supercell oppurtunities in the northern plains over the next week or so but tornadoes may be hard to come by with the TUTT low and northerly flow persisting over the gulf for a while. Evapotranspiration will yield the only moisture recovery for the plains. Maybe a chance in SD/NE/MN on Wednesday but nothing major on the horizon. Play some mountain upslope w/ upper 40's Td's anyone?

i noticed the same set up. models seem to be rather consistent the last few days. interesting to see the better Tds further north than further south, which seems interesting, but i guess that is due to the good ole evapotranspiration. i'm game to go, the armada might not be able to make this one as it is out of their domain. more to follow after the ole family leaves.

Wouldn't count on the ole Domain restriction for the armada. There is strong consideration of Wyoming, Nebraska, S. Dakota, E. Montana for Tuesday. Death ridge on the horizon has a way of making people more desperate.

Yea I saw Don in the office today and he mentioned the same thing. Hey, you can see some damn pretty high based storms on that high terrain even with 40-50 Td's. good luck

?

12z GFS has some hope on the horizon and going into June!

From Ed Berry's blog ....

Synoptic responses during the past week or so included the zonal mean storm track shifted anomalously poleward over the Northern Hemisphere, continuation of anomalous extratropical ridges (both hemispheres) with low pressure across the subtropics, and Western Hemisphere subtropical jets. Cutting to the chase, I do expect the latter to shift poleward and bring the Northern Hemisphere storm track southward (including the lower 48 states) over the next 2-3 weeks. During roughly days 10-20 a couple of strong progressive troughs across the western into the central states (north of ~35-40 degrees) is still possible should there be some form of GWO 7-8-1 transition. Maybe there is still some hope for project VORTEX!

12z GFS on 24 May 09 showed a pretty decent 500mb trough with a near neutral/negativie tilt to it coming into the plains 5-8 Jun 09. looking at the 850mb level, there were distinct kinks in the isobars indicating a dryline with strong wind shifts INVOF dryline. there looked to be a stout warm front over NEB/SD with the dryline draped to the south all the way down to the panhandles. granted it is around 300+ hrs, and since it is on NCEPs page, who know what low level trajectories look like along with thermodynamics. but this still shows a lot of hope for the end of the season.

Sun-Mon-Tues look like chase days for me for sure. After that, the disagreement has been frustuating within the models.

12z GFS from today, goes back to the solution from a couple of days ago and wants to eject that California low out into the plains late next week into the weekend. If that happens, then we're in business!!!! We'll see if the 12z ECMWF agrees with this idea or not.

I probably won't be posting any forecast thread stuff since ya'll are all out and I would just be posting it for myself.
I'll post reports on here and updates on blog though.

From DDC -->

"DEVELOPMENT OF A MEAN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES DURING WEEK TWO IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE GWO AND LIKELY WILL OCCUR AS ENHANCED TROPICAL THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SPREADS EASTWARD. A VERY ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS IS LIKELY IN MID JUNE."

DO WE THINK IT MAY GET A LITTLE CRAZY AFTER DARK..... ARE ANY OF YOU GOING OUT?

LAST I HEARD VORTEX WAS IN SD. GOOD LUCK ENJOY THE TRIP.......